Services Market Outlook 2022–2031
The Boeing Services Market Outlook (SMO) covers the support and services functions commonly found in the aviation market today. The SMO is a 10-year forecast, serving to guide business planning as well as to share with the public our view of industry trends in the commercial, business aviation, general aviation, civil helicopter, and government markets. Boeing models for projecting the size of services markets are analytically linked to the proprietary models we use in forecasting world airline fleet and government budgets. They also are linked to independent assessments of the forces driving specific markets.
Overall, Boeing expects the served market for support and services to be worth $3.3 trillion in the 10-year period between 2022 and 2031. Commercial services, including support for the business and general aviation markets, represent $1.8 trillion of the forecast. Government services are forecast to be worth $1.5 trillion. Support and services functions are diverse in terms of sales, activity scope, capital intensity, and competitive environments. We segment these service functions as: maintenance, repair, overhaul, and modifications; training and professional services; and digital solutions and analytics.
Market Summary
After years of growth and profitability, the aviation industry began the new decade with a pandemic that resulted in one of the worst shocks in aerospace history.
According to the International Air Transport Association, the industry has realized a loss of just over $200 billion since 2020, creating near-term cash challenges for operators. Nonetheless, in recovering from the impacts of COVID-19, the industry will remain resilient, and the services market will continue to play an important role in both the ongoing market recovery and long-term growth.
The pandemic had a marked impact on operators, air traffic, and related services. Boeing forecasts that the services market will return to 2019 levels by 2024, although full recovery will vary by market segment and region. Air-traffic disruptions imposed a ripple effect on airplane deliveries and the in-service fleet. In the immediate wake of the pandemic, commercial operators responded to the unprecedented decline in traffic demand by substantially reducing flights, often grounding entire fleets and delaying non-essential services.
This year, Russia's war in Ukraine has had a direct impact on the aviation industry, most notably that it will not be possible to deliver airplanes in Russia. Although there is demand for services in the Russia and Central Asia region, there is a high level of uncertainty of how long this situation will persist. For that reason, we have chosen not to publish a forecast for this region.
